Vincent Oberle’s blog
The iPod is NOT the future of Apple
I have been writing before that the iPod doesn’t have a future once the mobile phones get enough storage space. I even believe that the iPod killer will come from Microsoft, and this future phone from Samsung doesn’t contradict me, on the contrary:
this phone includes a 3GB hard drive and an iPod-like jog shuttle for navigation. Said to run the upcoming version of Microsoft’s Smartphone operating system code-named “Magneto,” the GSM phone supports a variety of music and video formats
Even Sony might be back in the competition for mobile computing platforms, not with any of their ridiculous music player but with the PSP, for one Russell Beattie things so:
Anyways, I think the PSP is going to become a lot more than just a portable PS2. It has the chance to not only become the iPod of multimedia devices, but a portable computing platform as well.
Both Microsoft and Sony have much more experience than Apple in making a phone. The Motorola phone with iTunes has been disappointing and I’m not sure Apple can do much better in the short term (but I wouldn’t bet my paycheck on this prediction).
The problem for Apple is they don’t have a platform for mobile devices like Microsoft does. The iPod isn’t one; it’s just a dump music player.
So maybe it’s the Mac mini that is the future of Apple! Robert X. Cringely sees the Mac mini and iTunes becoming the standard distribution and viewing tools for HDTV. There is an opportunity there for Apple, but Microsoft and the cable monopoly will fight this one too.
Apple has more cards for controlling the digital living room rather than the mobile one. But both worlds have to play nicely together, and Microsoft is the closest to make this happen.
January 28th, 2005 22:38
I know nobody can resist the power of Microsoft.
The ideas of Cringely are nice but I fear he may believe too much his own dreams.
So, I would probably agree with your post except for one point : Apple can really be surprising.
When the iPod was announced, no analyst was predicting any success for it. They not only were all wrong but they were strongly wrong.
So, I would not do any attempt to predict the future. As a Mac user myself, (and I have been Mac user since the beginning), I realize that Apple has changed a lot in a few years. And it is continuing its transformation. I don’t know what Steve has in mind, but the first pieces of his strategy are now being revealed and I think it is only the beginning.
And we must also take into account the Cell processor.
So, the Apple future is still fuzzy but very exciting. I think they are the most innovating big company today. (I am not talking about startup of course)
And I have succeeded in writing a comment to say nothing
January 28th, 2005 22:47
I don’t take myself prediction too seriously, it’s a fun game…